Sidee Loo Ogaadaa Labada Lacagood Ee Isku Lamaan Mida Awoodaleh (Forex Pairs)?

Sidee Loo Ogaadaa Labada Lacagood Ee Isku Lamaan Mida Awoodaleh (Forex Pairs)?

Marka aad trade-garaynayso Forex ama aad rabto inaad fahanto labada lacagood ee isku lamaan (currency pair), su’aasha ugu weyn ee la isweydiiyo waa: midkee ka awood badan waqtigan? Taas micnaheedu waa inaad rabto inaad ogaato lacagtee dhaqaale ahaan xoog badan oo qiimaheedu kor u kici karo si aad buy ama sell ugu raacdo.

Waxaan casharkii hore ku soo baranay in lacaguhu isku raacaan hab lamaane ah (Pairs) tan xaga hore martana la yidhaahdo Base currency halka tan xaga dambe martana layidhaahdo Quote currency.

Hadaba awoodda lamaane lacagood (Forex pair) waxaa si sahlan lagu garan karaa iyadoo la barbar dhigo qiimaha hadda ay taagantahay iyo halkii ay joogay 10 sano ka hor. Haddii qiimaha pair-kaasi uu hoos uga dhacay heerkii hore, waxay inta tusaysaa in base currency ay lumisay awooddeeda. Haddii uu kor uga kacay, waxay caddeyneysaa in base currency ay awooddeeda ilaalisay ama xataa xoogeysatay.

Tusaale ahaan, haddii EUR/USD uu ahaa 1.600 toban sano ka hor maantana uu yahay 0.950, waxay ina tusinaysaa in Euro (Base currency) ay xoogaa lumisay awooddeedii marka loo eego US Dollar (Quote currency).

HALKAN WAXAA KU XUSAN SIYAABAHA LOO OGAADO AMA LOO MIISAAMO LAMAANAHA LACAGTA AAD DOONAYSO IN AAD TRADE-GARAYSO.

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Xaaladda Dhaqaale (Macroeconomic Indicators)

Waxaa muhiim ah in la eego tilmaamayaasha dhaqaalaha ee labada dal, tusaale:

• GDP (Wax-soo-saarka guud): Heerka kobaca dhaqaalaha.
• Shaqo la’aanta: Heerka shaqo la’aanta oo muujin kara caafimaadka dhaqaalaha.
• Inflation (sicir barar): Sicir-bararka oo xakameyn kara ama xoojin kara lacagta.
• Balance of Trade: Heerka dhoofinta iyo soo dejinta; dalka leh dhoofin xooggan lacagtiisu waxay u muuqataa inay xoog badan tahay.

Tusaale: Haddii dhaqaalaha Maraykanka uu si xoog leh u kobcayo halka dhaqaalaha Yurub uu daciif yahay, EUR/USD waxay aadaysaa hoos (sell).

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Go’aamada Bangiga Dhexe (Monetary Policy)

Bangiyada dhexe (sida Federal Reserve ama European Central Bank) waxay leeyihiin saameyn weyn:

• Faaiidooyinka dulsaarka (Interest Rates): Haddii bangiga dhexe uu kordhiyo dulsaarka, lacagtaas waxay yeelanaysaa xoog dheeraad ah sababtoo ah maalgashadayaal badan ayaa xiiseynaya.
• Tilmaamaha Siyaasadda Lacageed: Go’aamada bangiga dhexe, sida kor u qaadista ama hoos u dhigidda dulsaarka (ribada), waxay si toos ah u saameeyaan qiimaha lacagta. Kor u qaadista dulsaarka waxay xoojisaa lacagta, halka hoos u dhigid ama gargaar dhaqaale uu lacagta daciifiya.
  
  

Tusaale: Haddii ECB ay bilawdo barnaamij gargaar dhaqaale (tusaale, daabacaad lacag cusub ama iibka bonds), Euro waxay u badan tahay inay daciifto marka loo eego USD.

Barnaamijka gargaar dhaqaale wuxuu suuqa gelinayaa lacag cusub, taas oo kordhinaysa tirada lacagta wareegeysa suuqa (supply). Marka lacag badan suuqa ku jirto, qiimaheedu wuu hoos u dhacaa sababtoo ah sicirka (demand) lama beddelin balse supply ayaa kordhay. Sidaas darteed, Euro waxay luminaysaa awood marka loo barbar dhigo lacagaha kale sida USD.

Arrimaha Siyaasadda iyo Xasilloonida

Dalka leh xasillooni siyaasadeed iyo sharciyo cad oo maalgashi wuxuu soo jiitaa maalgashi dibadeed, taasoo lacagtiisa xoog ka dhigta. Colaadaha, doorashooyinka qalalaasaha leh, ama hubanti la’aanta waxay hoos u dhigaan qiimaha lacagta.

Saamaynta Caafimaad ee Caalamiga (Global Risk Sentiment)

Xaalado caalami ah sida:

• Dagaallo.
• Xiisado ganacsi.
• Caabuqyo (sida COVID-19) waxay saameeyaan lamaanaha lacagaha ah.

Lacagaha loo yaqaan safe haven (USD, CHF, JPY) ayaa xoog yeesha marka ay jirto cabsi dhaqaale oo caalami ah.

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Qiimeynta Xiligaas (Short-Term Catalysts)

Si aad u ogaato awoodda xilligan cayiman:

• La soco wararka dhaqaale ee soo baxay ama la filayo.
• Falanqee jawaabaha suuqa: tusaale, haddii war wanaagsan uu soo baxo laakiin lacagtu kor u kici weydo, waxay muujin kartaa in lacagta xoogga suuqeed uu daciif yahay.

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Tusaale Ku Salaysan:

Haddii aad eegayso GBP/USD xilligan:

• UK waxay leedahay dhibaatooyin dhaqaale (sicir-barar sare iyo koboc gaabis ah).
• Maraykanka wuxuu leeyahay koboc wanaagsan iyo dulsaarka sare.

→ Qiimeynta waxay muujineysaa in USD ay ka awood badan tahay GBP xilligaas.